AI / Polymarket
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Archived market · last recorded observation
This market is outside the current HowSure catalog. The price, date and conditions below are retained from an earlier capture; they are not a current quote. Removal from the catalog does not establish closure, settlement or the final outcome.
Last recorded YES price
Market-implied probability. The equivalent YES price in cents is shown in Analysis.
Last recorded at
Stale observation24h change at that captureNot recorded
A recorded market price, not a HowSure forecast or an executable quote. Freshness describes its age, not its accuracy.
Read it in context
The recorded closing time is 2026-12-31 17:00:00 UTC. The captured lifecycle is “active”. Closing time and lifecycle alone do not establish final settlement.
Venue description is available; separate resolution rules were not supplied. The venue text and deciding authority have not been independently checked by HowSure.
Not supplied: freshness expiry, 24-hour change, separate resolution rules field. These gaps are not filled with estimates.
What a market price can tell youMarket conditions & captured source
Venue description
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Separate resolution rules
No separate resolution-rules field was supplied. The venue description above may contain resolution conditions; verify their complete current wording at the venue.
Open the captured venue/source URL ↗
A source link may be the venue’s market page. It does not prove the deciding authority. Verify the complete rules and that authority independently; HowSure has not verified or adjudicated the outcome.
Recorded metrics & what to check next
- 24h source volume
- $2,575
- Source liquidity
- $100,056
- Closing time
- 2026-12-31 17:00:00 UTC
- Lifecycle in source
- active
The source does not provide a 24-hour change here; no change is inferred.
Before citing the observation
- Read a newer, timestamped observation before describing the current market price.
- Read the captured venue description below for its stated conditions, then confirm the complete current rules and deadline at the venue. A separate resolution-rules field was not supplied.
- Identify and independently verify the deciding authority from the complete rules. A captured venue/source URL is only a source link, not proof of that authority; HowSure has not independently verified it.
Keep the observation with its context
This page currently shows the last retained observation. It is not an immutable archive; its contents can change or become unavailable. The note keeps the question, time, value and content digest from this read.
Preserve the exact question, source time and digest when quoting this observation.
Technical provenance & data boundaries
- Serving source
- HowSure Neon retained capture
- Market identity
polymarket:condition-sha256:fcf269130117e70e94a355822f9d59df30b32989afa7660ff1d47b1b71e26a23- Observation digest
sha256:79f54bc83adf455464b2c679e67c8707ccc4690974866027d172722fae3e1fcb- Read at
- 2026-10-17 05:26:03.775 UTC
The digest identifies captured content; it does not certify factual accuracy or provide a permanently retrievable version.