Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by at least 30%?

Venue description

The first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election is currently expected to be held on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the first round ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election as published by the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Централна избирателна комисия); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Separate resolution rules

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24h source volume

$61,391

Source liquidity

$166,406

Closing time

2026-10-25 23:59:00 UTC

Lifecycle in source

active

The source records a 24-hour change of −3.85 percentage points. This is an absolute probability-point change, not a relative percentage return or an explanation of why the price moved.

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Serving source

HowSure Neon capture

Market identity

polymarket:condition-sha256:fd3a15ae8b4719cc26d5c48329ee171ee70519aacee0a2f6dd8c43149f71ec47

Observation digest

sha256:bcd7318b4f5941fe1629f2f9a37bfa1b1ff8ab7fa2dc32a9b06d7624c3d33cea

Read at

2026-10-21 17:43:10.802 UTC

The digest identifies captured content; it does not certify factual accuracy or provide a permanently retrievable version.