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Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?

Open current market analysis ↗
Source review · claim by claim

Bitcoin threshold: one-minute highs, not the current quote

Binance documents one-minute klines, a High field and UTC start/end request bounds.

Reviewed · fixed review version

This review supports only the claims below. It is not a forecast, confirmation of final settlement, or explanation of a price move.

What the sources establish

  1. Supported claimExternal source

    Binance documents one-minute klines, a High field and UTC start/end request bounds.

    The named primary source supports this limited reading; it does not establish this contract’s final outcome.

    Source 2: Binance
  2. Supported claimContract terms

    The retained venue description defines this contract’s conditions and exceptions as recorded below.

    Read from the exact contract in the captured catalogue. This is a reading of retained venue text, not independent confirmation of settlement.

    Source 1: Polymarket via HowSure catalogue

Read the contract this way

YES condition
Any final Binance BTC/USDT one-minute High reaches at least $120,000 within November 24, 2025, 14:00 to December 31, 2026, 23:59 ET, as the venue text specifies.Source 1
NO condition
The retained description says Otherwise No. A current quote below $120,000 does not prove that no earlier qualifying candle occurred.Source 1

Inspect the evidence

Open a source to inspect its retained excerpt and capture time. Linked pages may change after the review.

01Retained Polymarket contract descriptionPolymarket via HowSure catalogue · Venue contractAccessed
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Retained /api/workspace generation 6802, observation 2026-10-10T19:11:29.461Z; direct venue re-read unavailable in this review.

Read original source
Published
Not supplied
Accessed
Retained excerpt fingerprint17bcc0bd6e3a819509478b502aacef5ca1053e9c0b728f3f129e8eaa5aa1c329

SHA-256 identifies this retained excerpt, not the full source page or its accuracy.

02Binance Spot API: Kline/Candlestick dataBinance · Primary sourceAccessed
startTime and endTime are always interpreted in UTC, regardless of timeZone.

Kline/Candlestick data, Notes; 1m interval and response index [2] High are listed in the same section.

Read original source
Published
Not supplied
Accessed
Retained excerpt fingerprintf987f7a331d9fd0d832fdf76d02492116b6941969348ba619aae75ec5fbfb2da

SHA-256 identifies this retained excerpt, not the full source page or its accuracy.

Still unknown

  • This review checked the data definition, not the entire qualifying candle history. It does not establish whether the threshold was crossed.
  • An incomplete candle, another exchange or a different trading pair cannot be substituted for the contract’s specified source.
  • The live venue page could not be re-read during this review; the venue conditions are the retained catalogue text.
  • A recorded price is not a forecast. This review does not explain a price move or confirm settlement.

What to check next

Dates & settlement context

No source-confirmed event date was retained for this capture. Source publication and access times are not event dates.

Venue scheduled end
2027-01-01 05:00:00 UTC · after captureVenue metadata only. This timestamp does not confirm the event deadline, an outcome or final settlement.
Review checkpoint
No review time scheduled.A suggested research action, not a scheduled review or reminder.
Settlement
Not established.No final settlement time or outcome is established by these dates or by this review.
Next deadline · retained review text

December 31, 2026, 23:59 ET is the retained window end. Before asserting an outcome, check the whole specified candle interval and its timezone conversion.

Polymarket via HowSure catalogue
  1. Fetch bounded, paginated Binance BTCUSDT 1m candles covering the exact ET window converted to UTC; check continuity and final High fields.
  2. Preserve response ranges and missing intervals before making any threshold claim.
Exact contract context retained with this review
Market
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?
Contract ID
polymarket:condition-sha256:f320ae1a0653b1174c838bbecc81e58f0456f6711fe251fd790496852c5ccdce
Scheduled end metadata
2027-01-01 05:00:00 UTC · not a settlement determination
Declared resolution source
https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT
Venue description
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Separate resolution rules
Not supplied