Bitcoin threshold: one-minute highs, not the current quote
The contract uses final Binance BTC/USDT one-minute highs. Binance’s official repository documents the one-minute interval, High field and UTC request bounds; the qualifying candle history was not checked.
Reviewed · fixed review version
This review supports only the claims below. It is not a forecast, confirmation of final settlement, or explanation of a price move.
What the sources establish
- Supported claimContract terms
The current native contract requires a final Binance BTC/USDT one-minute High of at least $120,000 within November 24, 2025, 14:00 through December 31, 2026, 23:59 ET.
The sole Gamma row was matched by native condition-ID hash, question and full conditions. It is a reading of that description, not verification of a qualifying candle or settlement.
- Supported claimExternal source
Binance’s official REST API documentation lists a one-minute kline interval, a High field, and startTime/endTime parameters interpreted in UTC regardless of timeZone.
These three data-definition facts are present in the named Kline/Candlestick data section of the publisher’s own Markdown documentation. The High comment describes an API response example, not an observed BTC price. The venue’s ET window still requires explicit conversion for any later candle-history query.
- Open questionExternal source
Whether a qualifying final candle crossed $120,000, and the market’s settlement, are not established by this review.
No complete candle history, continuity audit, or venue settlement record was examined. A current quote cannot establish absence of an earlier qualifying High.
No supporting source recorded
Read the contract this way
- YES condition
- Any final Binance BTC/USDT one-minute High reaches at least $120,000 within November 24, 2025, 14:00 to December 31, 2026, 23:59 ET, as the venue text specifies.Source 1
- NO condition
- The retained description says Otherwise No. A current quote below $120,000 does not prove that no earlier qualifying candle occurred.Source 1
Inspect the evidence
Open a source to inspect its retained excerpt and capture time. Linked pages may change after the review.
01Current Polymarket contract descriptionPolymarket · Venue contractAccessed
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Gamma GET /markets?slug=will-bitcoin-reach-120000-by-december-31-2026-625-425-562; sole row id 701494; description, first paragraph. Native condition-ID hash matches the recorded HowSure market ID.
Read original source- Published
- Not supplied
- Accessed
Retained excerpt fingerprint
17bcc0bd6e3a819509478b502aacef5ca1053e9c0b728f3f129e8eaa5aa1c329SHA-256 identifies this retained excerpt, not the full source page or its accuracy.
02Binance official Spot API repository: Kline/Candlestick dataBinance · Primary sourceAccessed
minutes | `1m`, […] […] * Note that `startTime` and `endTime` are always interpreted in UTC, regardless of `timeZone`. […] // High price
rest-api.md, exact heading “### Kline/Candlestick data”, bounded before the next peer ### heading: selected first interval in the minutes row; Notes UTC sentence; High comment in the response example. Omitted intervals and intervening text are marked […]. Captured file lines 1142, 1156 and 1167.
Read original source- Published
- Not supplied
- Accessed
Retained excerpt fingerprint
301f225d33e900f38fef8c7448a37847e590a8400747de20e21ec01a2e74b18dSHA-256 identifies this retained excerpt, not the full source page or its accuracy.
Still unknown
- This review checks contract wording and API data definitions, not the complete qualifying candle history. It does not establish whether the threshold was crossed.
- An incomplete candle, another exchange, or a different trading pair cannot substitute for the contract’s specified final BTC/USDT one-minute High.
- The contract’s ET window and the API’s UTC request bounds are different specifications. Their exact timezone conversion and complete interval coverage were not computed here.
- This amendment uses Binance’s official GitHub publication after the developer-site URL returned an HTTP 202 JavaScript challenge. It records a new source publication and method, not a change in the underlying UTC rule. bitcoin-120k-20261010-v1 remains the earlier immutable record.
- The Markdown publication needs its own source-comparison history. A reading of that URL cannot retroactively replace an unavailable developer-site reading or establish that the old source stayed unchanged.
- A recorded price is not a forecast. This review does not explain a price move or confirm settlement.
What to check next
Dates & settlement context
No source-confirmed event date was retained for this capture. Source publication and access times are not event dates.
- Venue scheduled end
- 2027-01-01 05:00:00 UTC · after captureVenue metadata only. This timestamp does not confirm the event deadline, an outcome or final settlement.
- Review checkpoint
- No review time scheduled.A suggested research action, not a scheduled review or reminder.
- Settlement
- Not established.No final settlement time or outcome is established by these dates or by this review.
December 31, 2026, 23:59 ET is the retained window end. Before asserting an outcome, check the whole specified candle interval and its timezone conversion.
Polymarket- Before asserting an outcome, retain bounded, paginated Binance BTCUSDT 1m candles for the specified ET window converted explicitly to UTC; check final High fields, continuity and missing intervals.
- Compare later reads only with the same official Markdown Kline section, locator and extraction method. Treat the first capture from this publication as a new baseline, separate from the earlier developer-site URL.
Exact contract context retained with this review
- Market
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?
- Contract ID
polymarket:condition-sha256:f320ae1a0653b1174c838bbecc81e58f0456f6711fe251fd790496852c5ccdce- Scheduled end metadata
- 2027-01-01 05:00:00 UTC · not a settlement determination
- Declared resolution source
- https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT
- Venue description
- This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
- Separate resolution rules
- Not supplied