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Contract rules · 6 min read

GDP Prediction Markets: First Estimates, Delayed Releases and Revisions

By HowSure · Published

For a GDP contract that selects the first Advance estimate, use that exact quarter, measure and release version. A later revision can change the economic history without changing the number required by the contract. Preserve an official rescheduling notice when the publication date differs from the terms, and check bracket boundaries against the complete outcome list.

In this guide

One quarter, two numbers, different questions

Our example asks: Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 1.0% and 1.5%? The description retained from Polymarket on October 15, 2026, selects seasonally adjusted, annualized GDP growth in the first available report labeled Advance Estimate. It excludes subsequent revisions. Those requirements matter more than a search result containing GDP and the correct quarter.

BEA's Advance page reports 1.4% real GDP growth for Q4 2025. Its Third-estimate page reports 0.5% and also preserves a comparison row: Advance 1.4%, Second 0.7%, Third 0.5%. The two pages were read again on October 16. They describe different vintages of the same quarter, not interchangeable evidence for this contract.

Match the units before using the value

The Advance release contains several plausible-looking numbers. Its real quarterly GDP change at an annual rate is 1.4%. Current-dollar quarterly GDP is 5.1%; annual real growth for the whole of 2025 is 2.2%; the nonannualized quarterly real change is 0.4%. None of the latter three substitutes for the selected real quarterly annualized measure.

A reliable record keeps the full identity together: United States, real GDP, Q4 2025 relative to the preceding quarter, seasonally adjusted annual rate, Advance vintage. Retain the table heading and the matching narrative. A naked number, or an annual figure from the combined quarter-and-year title, loses the distinction the contract depends on.

A stale date needs an explanation, not a replacement value

The retained venue terms expected January 29, 2026. BEA's Advance release instead prints February 20, 2026, at 8:30 AM EST. Its notice explicitly connects the original January 29 schedule with the October–November 2025 government shutdown. BEA's schedule independently lists the matching Q4-and-year Advance release on February 20.

That gives a reader a traceable reason to associate the postponed report with the named quarter. Keep the original contractual date, official rescheduling notice, printed release time and your later source-read time separate. Silently editing the contract date would destroy the discrepancy another reviewer needs to understand.

This historical contract has no explicit publication-delay deadline or previous-quarter fallback. Do not import such a clause from a newer GDP contract. If the correct Advance report cannot be obtained, an unrelated release or the later Third estimate cannot repair the missing evidence.

Keep later estimates beside the original

The April 9 Third estimate is useful context. It answers what BEA reported at that later stage. It does not become the first Advance estimate merely because it is more recent. In this example, the contract's explicit exclusion of subsequent revisions makes the distinction actionable.

BEA marks these older release pages as superseded, and its interactive tables can point to newer data. An agent should retain the release URL, its printed vintage, the exact passage, retrieval time and content hash. A later download proves what was retrieved then; it does not establish that those bytes are identical to the original publication. Keep that limitation visible even when the selected value is clear.

Test equality at the edges of each bracket

The event retained seven outcomes, from less than 1.0% through greater than 3.5%. Its common description assigns a value exactly between two brackets to the higher range. For the selected 1.0–1.5% contract, 1.0% therefore belongs inside and 1.5% belongs to the next range. The observed Advance value, 1.4%, lies inside without touching an edge.

There is a separate conflict at the top: the final question and label literally say greater than 3.5%, while the shared boundary instruction points toward the higher range. Preserve that conflict at exactly 3.5%; do not silently change greater than to greater than or equal to. A complete roster helps expose inconsistent terms. It does not make every boundary unambiguous.

This is a reading of the numerical condition. A closed flag, a matching value or a displayed price of 1 is not an independent record of completed venue settlement.

Repeat the exact read and keep its limitations

The public request below selects this contract, opts into the BEA release read and includes its event brackets. It needs no account or paid model. The downloadable example preserves the actual response captured on October 16, 2026, at 12:26:54.743 UTC. Keep the raw JSON rather than only an agent's summary. A later response may contain missing or unavailable sources; that is a result to preserve, not permission to substitute another vintage.

In the contract inspector, select Include the actual BEA release, then Check event brackets. Choose Collect source evidence and export the result. Compare the qualifying Advance observation separately from revision context and any boundary conflict. This action does not save a private document, enable monitoring or establish settlement.

curl --fail-with-body --show-error --proto '=https' --max-time 30 --get \
  'https://www.howsure.com/api/free/v1/research/evidence' \
  --data-urlencode 'market=will-us-gdp-growth-in-q4-2025-be-between-1pt0-and-1pt5' \
  --data-urlencode 'include_release=true' \
  --data-urlencode 'include_brackets=true' \
  -o howsure-q4-2025-gdp.json

Sources & verification

Sources and instructions checked 16 October 2026. Live responses can change. Editorial method and limitations.

Try it with a real contract

Inspect the Q4 2025 GDP contract