PCE spending and PCE inflation are different fields
BEA publishes the PCE price index in its monthly Personal Income and Outlays report. The core index excludes food and energy. That report also contains spending and income measures, so a percentage attached to PCE is not automatically the inflation number your contract requires.
Read the complete conditions. A recognized HowSure example asks whether Core PCE MoM is exactly 0.2% in August 2026. Its terms require the price index excluding food and energy, a one-month period, seasonal adjustment and the report’s one-decimal figure. Headline PCE, a 12-month change or growth in real consumption would answer different questions.
August data and a September publication can both be correct
The August 2026 BEA release examined for this guide is dated September 30, 2026. It reports core monthly inflation of 0.2%, headline monthly inflation of 0.3%, core annual inflation of 3.0% and headline annual inflation of 3.4%. These are four distinct observations, not competing estimates of one field.
Keep the reference month separate from the publication date and your own read time. Use the release title, monthly paragraph and matching table column together. A contract’s catalogue closing time is not evidence of publication, and a later successful request does not establish what was available at the original release time.
Keep the release version with the value
The same release includes an annual-update notice and explains that linked interactive tables later reflect newer data. BEA provides a separate data archive for the original estimates. A news-release page, a current interactive table and an archived data vintage are therefore different evidence objects.
HowSure’s supported PCE observation identifies a retained named monthly release. It does not certify unchanged first-publication bytes: originalReleaseVerified remains false. Its bounded retained passage also leaves seasonalAdjustment as not_explicit_in_retained_passage. This describes the evidence retained by the reader, not a claim that BEA’s underlying series is unadjusted.
Keep these limits even when the displayed number matches the contract. In the current PCE reading, conditionAssessment stays unknown and settlementEstablished stays false. Do not replace either with YES simply because the source has an official domain or the arithmetic is straightforward.
Equality and 0.6% or more are different tests
An exact 0.2% question requires equality at the specified reporting precision. A supported 0.6%-or-more question uses an inclusive threshold: a hypothetical qualifying value of 0.6% reaches it, 0.7% also reaches it and 0.5% does not. These numbers illustrate the operator; they are not a reported release outcome.
For recognized upper-tail terms, HowSure exposes reportedValueComparison separately from the qualifying contract assessment. meets_numeric_threshold describes the reported number, while qualifyingConditionEstablished remains false if the required evidence is not established. Do not round extra digits into a supported one-decimal reading or infer support for every possible threshold wording.
An unreadable release is not proof of the fallback
The August example’s conditions contain a delay fallback tied to the next scheduled Personal Income and Outlays release. An unavailable response, an absent link or a timeout cannot establish that the contractual deadline passed without publication. Keep the exact captured exception and check the official schedule when it matters.
HowSure distinguishes observed, pending, unavailable and unsupported release readings. If the exact month is not available, it does not silently substitute the newest month. If the retained source cannot establish the required version, the result should explain that gap rather than manufacture a qualifying figure.
Request one exact release, then decide when to return
This public request asks for the supported PCE release scope for the exact August contract. It requires no account or paid model. Treat a successful response as a collection result: read collection_scope, contract_reading.pceRelease, sources, gaps and the actual capture times. A closed contract can still have source evidence even when no usable trading book remains.
In MCP, use howsure_collect_source_evidence with market and includePceRelease:true. For the complete workflow, the Node recipe uses --scope pce-release. Saving is separate and explicit. A later recheck compares the saved evidence version; monthly_comparison can distinguish a value change from provenance changes or a cached observation. Neither this request nor a save enables automatic watching.
curl --fail-with-body --show-error --proto '=https' --max-time 30 --get \
'https://www.howsure.com/api/free/v1/research/evidence' \
--data-urlencode 'market=will-core-pce-mom-be-0pt2-in-august-20260826182127' \
--data-urlencode 'include_pce_release=true' \
-o howsure-august-pce.jsonSources & verification
- BEA PCE price index overview — checked October 18, 2026
- BEA core PCE definition — checked October 18, 2026
- BEA August 2026 release, values and version notices — checked October 18, 2026
- Exact August Polymarket contract; live terms may differ from retained terms
- HowSure source scopes and response limitations
Sources and instructions checked 18 October 2026. Live responses can change. Editorial method and limitations.